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NBL · Regular season · 2026-27

Adelaide @ South East Melbourne

John Cain Arena

Adelaide win probability

39.6%

South East Melbourne win probability

60.4%

Projected score

92.4–96.0

Projected spread

+3.6

model margin, not a betting line

Projected total

188.3

points

Model updated Sat, Oct 24, 3:35 AM ET · 1 h before tip-off

Probabilities, not guarantees. A team given 60% loses about 4 times in 10 when the model is well calibrated. DunkScope explains model outputs and gives no betting advice; betting is for adults only (18+ or your local legal age).

Pro analysis free today: the most open game of the day.

Elo rating

each team’s strength from its results; 1,500 is average

Adelaide

1513

Over the last 5 games: ▼ −27

Season start: 1529

South East Melbourne

1526

Over the last 5 games: ▼ −5

Season start: 1552

1500
AdelaideSouth East Melbourne

Form in detail

this season, before the game

Adelaide

Current streak · 2 wins

At home1–2
Away3–2
Points scored
88.8 per game
Points allowed
90.8 per game
Average margin
−2.0
Margin home / away
−2.3 / −1.8

South East Melbourne

Current streak · 1 win

At home2–2
Away1–3
Points scored
96.5 per game
Points allowed
93.9 per game
Average margin
+2.6
Margin home / away
+4.8 / +0.5

Head to head

latest meetings, all seasons
Adelaide · 33 · South East Melbourne
  • Mar 17, 2026Adelaide 108–96 South East Melbourne
  • Mar 14, 2026South East Melbourne 101–92 Adelaide
  • Mar 10, 2026Adelaide 104–97 South East Melbourne
  • Jan 31, 2026Adelaide 77–97 South East Melbourne
  • Jan 18, 2026Adelaide 89–108 South East Melbourne
  • Nov 22, 2025South East Melbourne 81–94 Adelaide

Coming schedule

the next 5 opponents and their Elo rating

Adelaide

  • New Zealand BreakersOct 30 · at1511
  • Brisbane BulletsNov 1 · vs1392
  • Illawarra HawksNov 7 · vs1434
  • Melbourne UnitedNov 12 · vs1513
  • Illawarra HawksNov 19 · at1434

Opponents’ average rating: 1457 (league average: 1,500) · an easier schedule than average

South East Melbourne

  • Tasmania JackJumpersNov 1 · vs1515
  • SydneyNov 8 · at1630
  • Illawarra HawksNov 11 · vs1434
  • Melbourne UnitedNov 14 · at1513
  • New Zealand BreakersNov 18 · at1511

Opponents’ average rating: 1521 (league average: 1,500) · a tougher schedule than average

Top scorers

Adelaide

from 7 of the season’s 8 games: those with a complete box score

  • Cotton Bryce27.6 points

    37.2 min · 7 games

  • N. Rakocevic19.4 points

    30.2 min · 7 games

  • Cheatham Zylan12.9 points

    33.9 min · 7 games

  • J. Jenkins10.2 points

    24.5 min · 6 games

  • Cameron Flynn6.0 points

    19.9 min · 1 games

South East Melbourne

from 7 of the season’s 8 games: those with a complete box score

  • Sobey Nathan18.3 points

    26.9 min · 6 games

  • Glover Angus14.3 points

    21.4 min · 7 games

  • Mays Skylar14.1 points

    25.2 min · 7 games

  • D. Daniels11.0 points

    22.4 min · 7 games

  • Hunter Jordan10.8 points

    18.6 min · 6 games

Season so far

results known before the game

Adelaide4–4

  • at Tasmania JackJumpersW 94–88
  • at SydneyW 84–78
  • vs Melbourne UnitedL 91–96
  • vs New Zealand BreakersL 72–88
  • at Illawarra HawksL 92–114

South East Melbourne3–5

  • vs Cairns TaipansW 115–83
  • at Brisbane BulletsL 105–115
  • vs Melbourne UnitedL 99–104
  • vs Illawarra HawksW 113–96
  • at PerthL 88–92

How the prediction moved

every prediction is kept as made, never edited
  • 24 h before tip-offSOU 60.4%
  • 6 h before tip-offSOU 60.4%
  • 1 h before tip-offSOU 60.4%

Model: Elo, tuned on the competition’s past seasons. It only reads results (no rosters, no injuries): take it as a starting point, not a certainty.