NBL · Regular season · 2026-27

Sydney @ Illawarra Hawks

Thu, Oct 22, 4:30 AM ETWIN Entertainment Centre

Sydney win probability

64.4%

Illawarra Hawks win probability

35.6%

Projected score

102.8–97.9

Projected spread

−4.9

model margin, not a betting line

Projected total

200.7

points

Model updated Wed, Oct 21, 4:35 AM ET · 24 h before tip-off

Probabilities, not guarantees. A team given 60% loses about 4 times in 10 when the model is well calibrated. DunkScope explains model outputs and gives no betting advice; betting is for adults only (18+ or your local legal age).

Pro analysis free today: the most open game of the day.

Elo rating

each team’s strength from its results; 1,500 is average

Sydney

1613

Over the last 5 games: ▲ +1

Season start: 1606

Illawarra Hawks

1450

Over the last 5 games: ▼ −12

Season start: 1496

SydneyIllawarra Hawks

Form in detail

this season, before the game

Sydney

Current streak · 1 win

At home4–2

Away0–0

Points scored: 101.0 per game
Points allowed: 89.2 per game
Average margin: +11.8
Margin home / away: +11.8 / —

Illawarra Hawks

Current streak · 1 win

At home1–2

Away1–4

Points scored: 98.6 per game
Points allowed: 105.6 per game
Average margin: −7.0
Margin home / away: +0.7 / −11.6

Head to head

latest meetings, all seasons

Sydney · 51 · Illawarra Hawks

Sep 27, 2026Sydney 121–100 Illawarra Hawks
Feb 13, 2026Illawarra Hawks 94–120 Sydney
Jan 29, 2026Sydney 122–104 Illawarra Hawks
Dec 25, 2025Sydney 108–84 Illawarra Hawks
Nov 16, 2025Illawarra Hawks 71–98 Sydney
Feb 7, 2025Illawarra Hawks 95–75 Sydney

Coming schedule

the next 5 opponents and their Elo rating

Sydney

Melbourne UnitedOct 25 · at1517
PerthOct 28 · at1532
Tasmania JackJumpersOct 30 · at1515
South East MelbourneNov 8 · vs1526
Cairns TaipansNov 13 · at1433

Opponents’ average rating: 1504 (league average: 1,500) · a tougher schedule than average

Illawarra Hawks

Brisbane BulletsOct 24 · vs1392
PerthOct 31 · at1532
Cairns TaipansNov 5 · at1433
AdelaideNov 7 · at1513
South East MelbourneNov 11 · at1526

Opponents’ average rating: 1479 (league average: 1,500) · an easier schedule than average

Top scorers

Sydney

from 4 of the season’s 6 games: those with a complete box score

K. Davis26.0 points
31.5 min · 4 games
Craig Torrey17.2 points
26.8 min · 4 games
Maluach Makuach16.0 points
21.9 min · 4 games
W. Johnston11.5 points
15.1 min · 4 games
X. Cooks10.8 points
25.4 min · 4 games

Illawarra Hawks

from 8 of the season’s 8 games: those with a complete box score

Martin Kelan16.5 points
28.3 min · 8 games
M. Maker14.5 points
19.8 min · 4 games
T. Harvey14.0 points
28.9 min · 1 games
Froling Samson13.5 points
23.4 min · 8 games
Doyle Milton12.6 points
26.7 min · 7 games

Season so far

results known before the game

Sydney4–2

vs PerthW 102–81
vs New Zealand BreakersL 101–102
vs AdelaideL 78–84
vs Brisbane BulletsW 93–78
vs Illawarra HawksW 121–100

Illawarra Hawks2–6

at Melbourne UnitedW 91–89
vs Cairns TaipansL 100–110
vs Tasmania JackJumpersL 112–122
at South East MelbourneL 96–113
vs AdelaideW 114–92

Model: Elo, tuned on the competition’s past seasons. It only reads results (no rosters, no injuries): take it as a starting point, not a certainty.