NBL · Regular season · 2026-27

New Zealand Breakers @ Sydney

Wed, Oct 14, 4:30 AM ETQudos Bank Arena

New Zealand Breakers win probability

28.8%

Sydney win probability

71.2%

Projected score

89.6–97.2

Projected spread

+7.6

model margin, not a betting line

Projected total

186.8

points

Model updated Tue, Oct 13, 1:02 PM ET · 24 h before tip-off

Probabilities, not guarantees. A team given 60% loses about 4 times in 10 when the model is well calibrated. DunkScope explains model outputs and gives no betting advice; betting is for adults only (18+ or your local legal age).

Pro analysis free today: the most open game of the day.

Elo rating

each team’s strength from its results; 1,500 is average

New Zealand Breakers

1511

Over the last 5 games: ▲ +8

Season start: 1491

Sydney

1608

Over the last 5 games: —

Season start: 1606

New Zealand BreakersSydney

Form in detail

this season, before the game

New Zealand Breakers

Current streak · 1 loss

At home2–0

Away1–3

Points scored: 90.5 per game
Points allowed: 85.5 per game
Average margin: +5.0
Margin home / away: +18.5 / −1.8

Sydney

Current streak · 1 loss

At home3–1

Away0–0

Points scored: 100.8 per game
Points allowed: 88.0 per game
Average margin: +12.8
Margin home / away: +12.8 / —

Head to head

latest meetings, all seasons

New Zealand Breakers · 15 · Sydney

Jan 9, 2026New Zealand Breakers 62–103 Sydney
Dec 3, 2025New Zealand Breakers 95–90 Sydney
Nov 9, 2025Sydney 79–72 New Zealand Breakers
Oct 4, 2025Sydney 97–75 New Zealand Breakers
Dec 20, 2024New Zealand Breakers 84–92 Sydney
Dec 7, 2024New Zealand Breakers 83–98 Sydney

Coming schedule

the next 5 opponents and their Elo rating

New Zealand Breakers

Tasmania JackJumpersOct 18 · at1508
Cairns TaipansOct 25 · at1451
AdelaideOct 30 · vs1500
Melbourne UnitedNov 2 · at1526
Tasmania JackJumpersNov 6 · at1508

Opponents’ average rating: 1499 (league average: 1,500) · an easier schedule than average

Sydney

PerthOct 17 · vs1545
Illawarra HawksOct 22 · at1441
Melbourne UnitedOct 25 · at1526
PerthOct 28 · at1545
Tasmania JackJumpersOct 30 · at1508

Opponents’ average rating: 1513 (league average: 1,500) · a tougher schedule than average

Top scorers

New Zealand Breakers

from 4 of the season’s 6 games: those with a complete box score

Jackson Parker25.8 points
37.2 min · 4 games
Mennenga Samuel17.8 points
32.6 min · 4 games
Vasiljevic Dejan16.2 points
26.2 min · 4 games
M. King10.8 points
23.4 min · 4 games
Te Rangi Reuben5.0 points
17.8 min · 4 games

Sydney

from 3 of the season’s 4 games: those with a complete box score

K. Davis27.0 points
30.8 min · 3 games
Maluach Makuach16.0 points
20.5 min · 3 games
Craig Torrey14.3 points
25.6 min · 3 games
X. Cooks12.7 points
24.4 min · 3 games
A. Carr9.7 points
21.8 min · 3 games

Season so far

results known before the game

New Zealand Breakers3–3

at PerthL 84–100
at AdelaideW 88–72
vs Cairns TaipansW 98–75
at PerthL 93–97
at Brisbane BulletsL 85–88

Sydney3–1

vs AdelaideL 78–84
vs Brisbane BulletsW 93–78
vs Illawarra HawksW 121–100
vs Cairns TaipansW 111–90

Model: Elo, tuned on the competition’s past seasons. It only reads results (no rosters, no injuries): take it as a starting point, not a certainty.